Writer: Joshua Andino
2 min read September 2022 — Labor day is over and the midterms are fast approaching. In Georgia, recent poll numbers paint a picture of an incredibly tight race for both governor and Senate.
While polling has been favorable toward Democrats over the last few months, anchored by a string of legislative and economic victories, most recently the early morning agreement between railroad unions and the railroads, it will be how candidates spend the post-Labor Day sprint to the election that determines the winner. And in Georgia, it seems Republicans may be able to hold the fort and take back one of the most pivotal states in the Union.
In the gubernatorial race, Gov. Kemp and Stacey Abrams remain deadlocked in what is becoming the rematch to watch this cycle. According to the most recently released Quinnipiac poll, the race between the two remains too close to call, with the governor holding a slight lead over Abrams, 50% to 48%. The same poll also shows that the majority of voters have made up their minds regarding what they think of the two candidates. Republicans 98 to 1 back Kemp, with Democrats similarly backing Abrams 97 to 2. Independents remain split, with Abrams holding a slight lead amongst them, 50 to Kemp’s 48.
Kemp and Abrams have agreed to two televised debates over the course of this coming October. The first is Oct. 17, with the second Oct. 30. While most voters have made up their minds, two issues, abortion and sports betting, will likely play center stage throughout the debates. The governor has made his pro-life positions well known, having implemented a 6-week abortion ban in the state. For her part, Abrams announced in August her intent to legalize sports betting in Georgia, providing a new source of revenue to help replenish Georgia’s Hope scholarship, while Kemp has remained opposed to legalization.
While the two continue to clash over who will be Georgia’s next governor, the race with the greatest national impact will be the Senate. Democrat Sen. Rev. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker have continued to joust over just when their own debate will take place, with the date shifting to Oct. 14. Walker has kept his options open despite prior commitments, likely to avoid adding to a long list of gaffes that saw the divide between him and Warnock stretch at times to as far as ten points behind in the polls. But a campaign shakeup, with a number of high-profile GOP operatives taking the reins and helping to keep Walker on message, has seen the political winds start to shift, but if this is in his direction remains to be seen.
According to the same Quinnipiac poll, Walker trails Warnock by around 6%, with the Democrat incumbent currently leading 52% to 46%. Another poll by InsiderAdvantage/Fox5 shows both Democrats, Abrams and Warnock trailing their Republican opponents, with Abrams down 42% to Kemp’s 50%, and Warnock behind Walker with the Senate race shaping up at Walker’s 47 to Warnock’s 44%, with the shift being attributed to Kemp’s stabilizing effect on down-ballot candidates. However, these changes all fall within the polls’ 4.2% margin of error, as well as a smaller sample size of 550 likely voters, compared to Quinnipiac’s 2.7% margin and 1,278 likely voters surveyed.
Polls are not how elections are decided however, and with just under two months remaining until Georgia’s deciding day on Nov. 8, there are still chances for the momentum to shift in any of the candidates’ favors and secure a decisive lead, considering how tight the race remains.
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