Writer: Joshua Andino
2 min read August 2022 — As the electoral landscape shifts, Pennsylvania’s midterm races are an essential piece in the Democrats’ strategy to hold onto the Senate as a potential “red wave” looms.
After what has shaped up to be a strong month for the Biden Administration, with multiple legislative wins, Democrats are looking optimistically at the prospect of holding on to the Senate as the 2022 midterm elections approach. Part of that strategy requires the party hold the key battleground state of Pennsylvania, where Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz are engaged in a fierce competition to get to Capitol Hill. Democrat Josh Shapiro is also facing off against Republican Doug Mastriano for the governor’s residence in Harrisburg.
The races can go either way, according to recent polls. Pennsylvania was one of the hardest-fought races in the general election, swinging for Biden by only 1.2% and subject to a number of President Donald Trump’s claims of voter fraud.
Fetterman has managed to shape the narrative of the election thus far, burnishing his blue-collar credentials as mayor of Braddock, PA – a hard-hit steel-industry town on Pittsburgh’s outskirts, for 13 years before securing his place as lieutenant governor in 2018. Oz, for his part, has the backing of former President Trump, who said in a statement that Oz was, “Pro-Life, very strong on Crime, the Border, Election Fraud, our Great Military, and our Vets, Tax Cuts, and will always fight for and support our under-siege Second Amendment.”
Despite Trump’s blessing, however, Oz has been unable to shake the “carpetbagger” narrative Fetterman has aggressively pushed, playing up Oz’s New Jersey living and his wealthy background, exemplified most recently by highlighting Oz’s properties and the apparent distinction between crudites and a veggie plate. Oz has in turn focused on the financial support Fetterman’s parents provided him, $54,000 in 2015 alone, while his only paying work was as mayor of Braddock – a position that pays $150 monthly.
While controlling the U.S. Senate has increasingly become a contest of memes and twitter fights, Republicans have begun to express their concerns about securing the Senate come November. Earlier this month at a Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce luncheon, Senate Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnel cited “candidate quality” as a key factor in Senate races and the reason why he believes Republicans are more likely to flip the House rather than the Senate.
Polling has not been favorable to Oz, who has trailed Fetterman by anywhere from four to 12 points. FiveThirtyEight shows Fetterman ahead by 10.4%. Polling aggregator RealClearPolitics’ average has Fetterman ahead by 7.5 points. Another poll, commissioned by Pittsburgh Works Together and conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, showed Fetterman ahead by 18 points.
The same poll also shows Democrat gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro leading Republican Doug Mastriano by 15%. While Fetterman and Oz’s actions have taken up most of the media oxygen, the gubernatorial race will also be one to watch. While Mastriano has been described as “far-right,” to the point that several prominent local Republicans went on to endorse Shapiro, he, nevertheless, has the backing of all but one of the state’s GOP congressional representatives.
With the elections less than a month away, Pennsylvania is a critical battleground in the fight to control the Senate. Perhaps more significantly, the results of the state’s elections may serve as a wider barometer of an electorate that may be beginning to warm up to Democrats’ agenda. With Fetterman and Oz gunning for the Senate and Republicans showing signs of unease with Mastriano, it seems the Democrats, at least in Pennsylvania, may have made themselves a bulwark against what Republicans were hoping would be a red wave.
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