Writer: Joshua Andino
2 min read August 2022 — As hopes of flipping the Senate wane, the Republican’s Ohio stronghold has become a surprisingly competitive race between J.D. Vance and Tim Ryan.
While the race will likely remain in favor of Republican J.D. Vance, author of the acclaimed Hillbilly Elegy, who is running for U.S. Senate in a state Trump won by almost 10 points, Democrat Rep. Tim Ryan has campaigned heavily, managing to narrow the gap between the two, with poll aggregator RealClearPolitics (RCP) giving Vance a 3.7-point advantage over Ryan. That the race is competitive in the first place highlights Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s concerns from earlier this month on the impact of candidate quality on Republican chances for the Senate.
The most recent poll from Emerson College shows Vance ahead by three points, but tightens to a single-point lead amongst “very motivated” voters. Vance pulls ahead amongst “somewhat motivated” voters to expand the gap by 20-points, leading by 46% to Ryan’s 26%. While Vance maintains the lead, the race’s newfound competitiveness has led Republicans to close ranks, holding rallies and boosting spending. In a potential sign of what’s to come, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis visited Ohio to stump for Vance at the Unite & Win Rally, offering his official endorsement earlier this month in what was a packed standing-room only event just outside of Youngstown. “Thank you for being patriotic enough to care about this country enough to come out and fight for it,” Vance said at the event, with DeSantis urging it was up to the crowd to make sure Ohio’s next Senator is a Republican. “We need to have people in Congress who are going to be willing to support a wall and support everything that we need to do,” DeSantis said. “Let’s do our part to get him there.”
Ryan, for his part, has barnstormed the state, making visits earlier last week. His first visit was at a Zanesville treatment center and later at a Columbus town hall event. An interactive map from the Ryan campaign shows the tours, rallies and campaign events that Ryan has made across the state – with visits having been made all across Ohio’s 88 counties and from Cincinnati to Geauga County. The highly visible campaign has Republicans, “scared sh-tless,” Ryan told The Dispatch, while his campaign released a travel itinerary for the “new to Ohio,” Vance and Desantis.
Vance leads, but cracks have begun to show. While RCP has yet to adjust the “leans Republican,” assessment of the race, other pollsters, such as FiveThirtyEight, have Ryan edging out Vance by a razor-thin margin of a little more than half a point. According to an internal poll by the Ryan campaign, the Democrat is ahead with 50% support to 47% for Vance and 3% undecided, with a 3.5% plus or minus margin of error. The poll was conducted from Aug. 17 to Aug. 23 and surveyed 800 likely general election voters.
But while Ryan has led an admirable campaign and built up strong small-dollar support, Republicans have marshaled themselves. DeSantis’ visit and endorsement coincided with a fresh $28 million dollar adbuy from a Mitch McConnell-aligned PAC, and Vance’s former primary opponents have started campaigning on his behalf, even as headlines and op-eds on Vance’s authenticity continue to pile up.
While Ohio has drifted increasingly towards Republican candidates over the last few decades, and current Republican Gov. DeWine holds a 16-point lead over his Democrat challenger Nan Whaley, when it comes to the Senate, Ohio has once again found itself a key battleground between Republicans and Democrats in the race to control the Senate for the upcoming midterm elections. With Ryan campaigning hard, Vance will play a critical role in the ability of Republicans to counter Democrats and the Biden Administration’s remaining policy agenda.
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