Writer: Joshua Andino
2 min read December 2022 — Greater Orlando has seen two years of immense growth but in a new economic landscape, labor, housing and transportation are all at play as the region moves into 2023.
The regional economy has mostly flourished over the last two years. Open, pro-business policies allowed employers to resume operations and employees to get back to work, while also fueling a relocation boom that has seen the entire state’s population swell. The ongoing influx of new residents has provided benefits and challenges to the region, with labor being easier to come by than other parts of the country. The most recent data from the Florida Department of Economic Development shows Orlando leading the state when it comes to job creation in the manufacturing and leisure sectors, with the area unemployment rate reaching a low of 2.8 percent, a 1.2 percent decrease from this time last year. The area’s workforce has swelled by 4 percent, as it welcomed another 54,612 workers into the economy over the year.
Housing, however, has become a critical issue that will continue to influence decisions made by private businesses and policymakers alike, with the public increasingly in need of relief even as a potential rent-stabilization ordinance was struck down in court earlier this year. While the ongoing housing correction seems to finally be driving prices back down, the lack of inventory and high cost of mortgages means that prices will remain difficult to manage for Orlando’s average households making only about $55,183 annually. Housing prices, standing at around $365,000, remain up by 15% year-over-year, with Zillow’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun arguing that the concern should be focused on a potential housing shortage once mortgage rates normalize.
“Overall, the demand that in-migration has caused is significant to a level we haven’t seen in the last 10 years and it is definitely causing prices to rise. … In spite of this, we still have waitlists as long as 200 people in certain communities, so the demand is still extraordinary. When you combine that with supply chain challenges, it creates a unique dilemma,” explained Matt Orosz, former Division President of Landsea Homes Florida for Hanover Family Builders, when speaking to Invest: earlier this year.
While Orlando’s labor pool will continue to grow, fueling strong job growth and driving demand for more housing, even as the market itself will continue to pose a challenge for a variety of different stakeholders, developments around transit will provide new opportunities for Central Florida. Most notably, Brightline is conducting high-speed tests along its newly constructed rail line, and while service is yet to begin, the rail connection between South Florida to Orlando International Airport is mostly complete.
Patrick Goddard, CEO of Brightline, said in an interview with Invest:, that Florida is about to witness a sea-change. “When we open in Orlando, that will change everything in terms of our service for the state. … Tourists often fly into Florida and then must take a bus or car to their destination. With such a high volume of international travelers coming to Florida, train travel will be a solution they are familiar and comfortable with. They can get off their flight and walk directly to our train station and be connected to South Florida without ever having to get into a car. That is transformational.”
The route will open up hundreds of miles for potential development and job opportunities. While still in preliminary planning stages, Brightline is already looking at connecting Orlando to Tampa, with the rail-sharing agreement between Orlando’s own commuter service, SunRail, hailed as a win for the entire region and helping accelerate the private service’s westward expansion.
Policymakers should note about the potential ramifications of economic hardships residents are facing. During this year’s midterm elections, Orange County’s transportation surtax initiative failed to garner public support, with 58.5 percent of voters voting against the surtax, even while the aforementioned rent control ordinance, which remains in legal limbo, passed along similar margins at 58.8 percent. While the surtax’s proponents, including Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings, suffered a setback in terms of securing the additional funding, the mayor’s own re-election leaves little doubt as to his own popularity, with Demings coasting into his second term as county mayor with just over 57 percent of the vote, and keeping transportation central to his agenda moving forward.
While across the national landscape fears of a potential recession remain, Orlando seems poised to continue its current upward trajectory. Housing will be the critical issue moving forward, and while any potential solution will likely require collaboration between public and private stakeholders, both can be confident in the knowledge that the region will continue to grow. Strong population growth will continue to provide opportunities for industry development, and the beginning of Brightline’s rail services in 2023 will help relieve traffic congestion from international travelers while expanding residents’ job horizons and housing opportunities along SunRail’s expanding rail corridor.
As Mayor Buddy Dyer told Invest:, “The outlook is very bright.”
For more information, visit:
